Quick answer
Most hospitality businesses survive winter by knowing their weekly fixed-cost bill, building a reserve in the busy months and timing big spending for the quiet ones. The dangerous part is that tax and super obligations land just as takings dip. If a gap is forecast, an overdraft, line of credit or short working capital loan arranged early usually costs less than one arranged in a panic.
Key points
- Work out how many weeks of rent, wages and loan repayments your winter takings actually cover, before winter starts
- The June-quarter BAS is due 28 July, right in the trough, and super now follows each pay cycle under payday super
- Schedule refurbishments and equipment upgrades for the quietest weeks, not the weeks after a bad one
- Arrange a facility while the books look healthy; lenders read autumn trading, not July panic
- Cafes and restaurants have been closing at a high rate on cost pressure, so a buffer is a survival tool, not a luxury
Summer takes care of itself. Winter is where a hospitality business finds out whether it was ever really profitable, or just busy. The venues that make it through are rarely the ones with the best coffee or the nicest fit-out. They are the ones that knew their numbers before the first cold week.
CreditorWatch figures reported in 2026 put the closure rate for cafes and restaurants at roughly 12 a year, close to double the all-industry average, and blamed cost pressure more than poor management. That is the backdrop. Wages, rent and supplier costs do not drop in July just because the footpath is empty.
How much does winter really cost a venue?
Start with the one number most owners have never calculated: your weekly fixed-cost bill. That is everything that leaves the account whether or not a customer walks in.
- rent and outgoings
- permanent and minimum-roster wages, plus super
- loan, lease and equipment repayments
- insurance, utilities, software, licences
- the tax set-asides you owe but have not yet paid
Now take your weakest eight weeks of takings from last year and subtract cost of goods and casual wages that flex with trade. What is left is your contribution to fixed costs. If it covers 100 per cent of the fixed bill, winter is merely quiet. If it covers 70 per cent, you are burning 30 per cent of that bill from reserves every week, and you can calculate how long the reserves last.
This is the cash-cover test, and it takes an hour with last year’s bank statements. Our guide to cash buffers shows a way to size the reserve once you know the shortfall.
Why does July hurt more than the quiet itself?
Because the calendar is unkind. Three obligations tend to collide with the slowest weeks.
- The June-quarter BAS, generally due 28 July. It covers GST collected across the busy April to June period, and the money has often been spent by then.
- PAYG instalments and withholding on the same cycle.
- Super. Since 1 July 2026, payday super has meant employers generally pay super with each pay cycle, within seven business days of payday. The old pattern of holding super until the quarterly deadline, which quietly worked as a short-term float for many venues, is gone. Winter wage weeks now cost a little more in immediate cash.
The practical fix is dull and it works: move GST and super portions into a separate account on the day takings arrive, so the money exists when the obligation does. If you want the longer version, read our super and cash flow guide. If the ATO bill has already got ahead of you, what happens if you can’t pay your BAS explains where it goes.
What can you do to the revenue side?
Not every winter fix is financial. The pattern across successful venues is to stop treating the footpath as the only customer.
- Fill dead sessions with bookings. Private functions, set-menu groups, midweek workshops and corporate lunches turn a fixed-cost room into earning space.
- Shift the menu. Warm, higher-margin dishes and takeaway bundles can lift average spend when traffic drops. Westpac and Hey You data reported in mid-2026 showed cafe spending down year on year because of fewer visits, not smaller spend per visit, which suggests the lever is getting people through the door.
- Trim hours, not quality. Closing two dead afternoons often saves more in wages and power than it loses in sales, but check the numbers before you do it.
- Negotiate with landlords early. A turnover-linked rent for the quietest months is easier to agree in April than in July.
Our cafe cash flow guide goes deeper on the day-to-day rhythm, and planning for a quiet month covers the smaller dips.
When should you do the capital works?
A common mistake is doing the upgrade in the wrong season. Replacing the coffee machine or the walk-in cool room because it died in December is expensive, because you cannot close for a week and you have no negotiating time. Doing it in the quietest fortnight of winter, with a chosen supplier and a financed quote, is cheaper and calmer.
If you are planning a refresh, finance that suits the asset, such as equipment finance for kitchen gear, lets the repayments be spread across the year instead of landing on the thinnest weeks. Ask any lender whether the repayment structure can be shaped to your trading pattern. Some will, some will not, and it is a fair question to ask upfront. For a full kitchen or bar refit, see funding a commercial kitchen fit-out.
Which finance suits a seasonal venue?
| Option | Best for | Watch for |
|---|---|---|
| Business overdraft | Small, short dips in the account | Often reviewed annually and can be reduced |
| Line of credit | Recurring winter gaps you draw and repay | Keep drawn balance temporary, not permanent |
| Working capital loan | A known winter shortfall with a clear repayment path | Repayments continue in the quiet weeks |
| Equipment finance | Replacing or adding kit | Match the term to the asset’s life |
| Property-secured loan | Larger gaps or a refit, where equity exists | Security is at stake, so size carefully |
Banks are often the cheapest money in this table, and if yours offers an overdraft or line of credit sized for the trough, take it seriously. If the bank has declined, or the answer will take weeks you do not have, other lenders look at seasonal trading differently. The longer comparison is in our seasonal funding guide and the situations page for seasonal businesses.
What do lenders see in a seasonal venue’s statements?
When a lender reads twelve months of bank statements for a hospitality business, a winter dip is expected. They look for how deep it goes, how quickly takings recover in spring, and whether the account stays in credit through the trough. Statements that show regular GST and super payments being made on time, even in July, are persuasive.
What worries them is a pattern of rising overdrawn days, unpaid supplier accounts shown in the transactions or tax payments missed in the quiet months. Sorting these before you apply, and explaining any one-off event in a short note, makes the application easier to read. Our guide on explaining a bad year to a lender has a layout that works for a weak quarter too.
A worked example
This is illustrative only. A 60-seat Hobart restaurant has fixed costs of $14k a week. Its eight weakest weeks of last year produced $9.5k a week of contribution after food and casual wages, so it falls $4.5k a week short, or $36k over the eight weeks. The June-quarter BAS of $18k and super of $9k land in the same window.
Total winter need: roughly $63k. The reserve built over summer is $25k. The gap is about $38k.
Knowing this in March, the owner arranges a $40k line of credit while the books show a strong summer, schedules the dishwasher replacement for the quietest fortnight, and runs two corporate set-menu nights a week from June. The facility is drawn to around $28k, repaid by the end of spring and sits ready for the next year. Had the same owner applied on 20 July with the BAS overdue, the choices would have been narrower and likely dearer.
Where does an enquiry fit?
If your cash-cover test shows a gap, the cheapest time to deal with it is now, while there is still a choice about the shape of the funding. Plenty of owners come to us in the first week of July with a BAS looming, and we would rather talk in the autumn.
The enquiry form takes about a minute, and your credit file is not touched when you send it. We do not pass your details around to a list of lenders, so there is no flurry of calls afterwards. One person reads your situation, then phones you. Put in the real figures for your takings, your fixed costs and what the money is for, and the first option we talk through is much more likely to be the right one.
Frequently asked questions
How much cash should a cafe or restaurant hold for winter?
There is no universal figure, but a practical target is enough to cover your fixed costs for the weakest four to eight weeks of the year. Fixed costs means rent, permanent wages, loan repayments, insurance, utilities and software. Add the BAS and super that fall due in that window.
When is the BAS due in winter?
For businesses lodging quarterly, the June-quarter activity statement is generally due on 28 July. That is often your lowest-cash month. Setting GST aside weekly into a separate account stops the bill arriving as a surprise.
What is payday super and does it affect hospitality?
From 1 July 2026, employers generally have to pay super with each pay cycle (within seven business days of payday) instead of once a quarter. For a venue with many casuals it removes the old habit of using super money as a short-term buffer, so winter wage weeks cost a bit more in cash terms.
Can I get finance for a business that trades seasonally?
Yes. Lenders look at twelve months of bank statements, so a visible winter dip is expected and understood. What counts is whether the full-year cash flow covers the repayments. A facility sized for the trough and not the peak is the safest structure.
Is it better to borrow in winter or before it?
Before. Applying in March or April, on the back of a strong summer, tends to be quicker and gives you more choice. Applying mid-July, with a tax bill due and a thin account balance, narrows the options.
What if my bank has already said no?
A decline is not the end. Banks are often the cheapest money and worth taking seriously when you fit their criteria, but non-bank lenders assess seasonal businesses differently and some will fund against property or recent turnover. Our team can look at the specifics.